Session 2, Monologue 10: A Bunch of Homos

On the subject of peoples, populations, and species.

Population

The initial breeding populations were as follows:

  • Karma: approx. 10,000
  • Solen: approx. 2,000 after civil war
  • Abel: approx. 400 before genetic distinction

My calculations show that, with at least 2014 levels of medicine, in terms of infant and maternal mortality, and incentives to increase birth rate to 3 children per woman (up from 2.1, the 2014 U.S. norm) for several generations, it is possible--barely--for the Karman population to grow to billions within 800 years.

The Soleni are going to need some help from the Spore, and the Abelites, well, it's a good thing they're so good at genetic engineering.

Other things equal, here are the population projections:

Karma

From the initial 10,000 settlers, Karma's population has grown steadily through natural childbirth. Its population curve resembles that of America, less immigration. Stabilizing at roughly 1% increase per year matches that of modern developed nations. Likely, the Homeworlds have better medicine than us, but they probably have very different preferences on child-rearing, so let's just settle with these numbers.

The immigration from Karma to Terra Nova or Zion cancels out; I'm considering all natural-born citizens of the NTC or the Mandate to be part of the Karman population.

Thus.

From 10,000 in 2106 CE, the Karman population grew to over 50 billion by the mid 28th century, including colonists. It was on track to exceed 100 billion by 2800, and 1 trillion in 3030. But that was before Earthgate.

The war with Earth claimed almost two-thirds of all Karmans. The colonies suffered higher losses in percentage terms, as did the NTC, but of the 17 billion living on Karma proper at the war's outset, nearly half perished in the war as the drones annihilated entire cities.

The population is rebounding, especially on Karma proper, with birth rates not seen in centuries, but it will likely take another century to return to the previous high watermark.

The population breakdown:

Karma Proper Union Colonies NTC Worlds Zion Mandate DMZ Colonies

9,550M

2,931M

5,699M1

3,725M2

97M

1: NTC population figures only include homo sapiens; sub-human clones are not counted, but estimated at nearly 8 billion.
2: Zion's official population is 144 million, but they do not count "unenlightened" slaves, comprising the vast majority of their population.

Sporelings

Solen is not a forgiving world, offering life only in a narrow terminal band. Even with their great fecundity and...voracious appetites...the Dekori can only fit so many people on their home world.

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